Table of Contents
The Future of Libraries: Then and Now
Introduction
For thousands of years human-kind has looked to the future.
Life-after-death is a kind of futurism.
Agrarian societies planned for the planting harvesting cycle.
Industrial societies plan production and marketing cycles.
The Information Age prompts very long-range planning.
Methods for Futurology
Prediction
Trend Exploration (projection)
Simulation
Delphi
Decision (relevance) Trees Forecasting
Values
The Future of Technology: Views in Literature
Looking Backward Edward Bellamy (1887)
1984, George Orwell, 1948.
Brave New World, Aldous Huxley, 1932.
Woman on the Edge of Time, Marge Piercey, 1976.
Early Predictions for Modern Everyday Items
Inventions and Predictions
Bicycles
Bicycles
Airplanes
Telephone
Radio
Motion Pictures
Television 1880’s;1925
Its future, “if it has one, is thought to be largely in public entertainment--super-newsreels flashed before audiences at the moment of occurrence ….New York Times Predictions 1928
Television will never be a serious competitor for radio because “people must sit and keep their eyes glued on a screen; the average American family hasn’t the time for it.” New York Times, 1939
“Television won’t be able to hold onto any market it captures after the first six months. People will soon get tired of staring into a plywood box every night.” Darryl F. Zanuck, 1946
Home and Travel of the 1960’s
Computers
Library Predictions
Books and Reading
Libraries and Computers
Role of Computers in Libraries
Cost of Computers in Libraries
Value of Computers in Libraries
Videotext
PPT Slide
Paperless society
My Past Information Technology Predictions
Videodiscs
Technological Convergence
The Displacement of Books and Libraries
What This Means for Libraries
Catalogs, Metadata, Information
Systems
Authoring
http://www.lib.pratt.edu/information/index.html
The FAX
The Future of Books
“The Ancient and Ultimate”
Prediction Accuracy
Where I Think We Are Going
University of California Digital Library
LC American Memory Project
JSTOR Project
POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT REVIEW JSTOR coverage: Vols. 1-21, 1975-1995 Search this journal Browse this journal Help Population and Development Review is just one of the journals in the JSTOR collection. You may also choose to search or browse the entire JSTOR Journal Collection. Please read JSTOR's "Terms and Conditions of Use" before you begin.
Convergence
Increasing Diversity
For IT to be successful, it must be harmonized with the organizational context.
Shaping the Future
We are better off studying the future than not.
We cannot predict the future, but we can anticipate what is to come and be ready.
The future is not fixed, or predetermined.
We are not powerless over the future.
Thanks
Bibliography
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